Back in April, we speculated wildly about how bad things would be in the fall. Now that it's late August, I thought we could speculate again, but hopefully a little less wildly. It is my understanding that the recent economic news has been better, if not good. The economy shrank by just 1% during the second quarter; the Dow is up over 9,000, which is better than it's been anytime since Lehman Brothers. Of course, it's not as good as it was before Lehman Brothers. Thanks a lot, Lehman Brothers.
So, what does this mean? In the earlier thread, somebody said something about how endowments work and how even great economic news wouldn't lead to a recovery in the job market until next year. I'd like that to not be true. Also, I'm unsure of how this endowment stuff relates to public schools. Don't public schools derive most of their funding from taxes, and relatively little from endowments? And could it happen that even if the October JFP is a disaster, things could pick up in time for the November issue to go to press?
So, does anyone have a sense for what kind of job market we're going to see?